Futures Research Methodology, v2.0

Rok: 2003
ISBN: 9780972205115
OKCZID: 110154952

Citace (dle ČSN ISO 690):
GLENN, Jerome C. Futures research methodology v2.0 [elektronický zdroj]. Washington, DC: American Council for the United Nations University, 2003. 1 CD-ROM.

Anotace

Comprehensive and internationally peer-reviewed handbook on tools and methods for forecasting and analysis of global change. Each chapter in this series gives an executive overview of each method's history, description, primary and alternative usages, strengths and weaknesses, use in combination with other methods, and speculation about future usage. Some also contain appendixes with applications and sources for further information. Over half of the 25 methods and series of methods presented were written by the inventor of the method or by a significant contributor to its evolution. All chapters are presnted in an MsWord (.doc) version and a PDF version. Content: 1.Introduction to the Futures Research Methods Series; 2. Environmental Scanning; 3. The Delphi Method; 4. The Futures Wheel; 5. Trend Impact Analysis; 6. Cross-Impact Analysis; 7. Structural Analysis; 8. The Systems Perspectives; 9. Decision Modeling; 10. Statistical Modeling; 11. Technology Sequence Analysis; 12. Relevance Trees and Morphological Analysis; 13. Scenarios; 13.5 Interactive Scenarios; 14. Participatory Methods; 15. Simulation and Games; 16. Genius Forecasting, Vision, and Intuition; 17. Normative Forecasting; 18. S&T Road Mapping; 19. Field Anomaly Relaxation (FAR); 20. Text Mining for Technology Foresight; 21. Agent Modeling (demo software); 22. State of the Future Index (SOFI) Method; 23. SOFI System; 24. The Multiple Perspective Concept; 25. A Toolbox for Scenario Planning; 26. Causal Layered Analysis; 27 Integration, Comparisons, and Frontiers of Futures Research Methods

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